If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren’t quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel’s main sunday slate, which starts at 9:00 a.m. EST and features six matches. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
Norwich (+600) at Wolves (-220)
Over 2.5 Goals: -120 | Most Likely to Score: Jimenez (-110)
Crystal Palace (+260) at Aston Villa (+105)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Watkins/Ings (+175)
Brighton (+160) at Leeds (+165)
Over 2.5 Goals: -114 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+155)
Manchester City (-280) at West Ham (+650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -132 | Most Likely to Score: Mahrez (+115)
Leicester City (-105) at Watford (+270)
Over 2.5 Goals: -132 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (-105)
Brentford (+110) at Everton (+250)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+130)
Matchweek 37 features one big-six side, with Manchester City in action on a six-game main slate. City (-280 to win) is the largest favorite on the slate, and Raul Jimenez ($17) has the best odds to score (-110) of anyone expected to be active on Saturday.
Wolves (-220 to win) is the second-biggest favourite, followed by Leicester City (-105 to win) in third. Aston Villa (+105 to win), Brentford (+110 to win), and Brighton (+160 to win) round out the slate.
All eyes will be on Manchester City on Sunday as they look to take one step closer to winning the league. After their dismantling of Wolves on Wednesday, City are firmly back on track following their shock loss in the Champions League semi-final. Given City’s form and motivation, fading them this weekend is risky. That said, they will be extremely popular and will likely see some of the highest draft percentages of the season while facing a West Ham side coming off a four-goal win with recent one-goal losses to Arsenal and Chelsea.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider — especially for tournament formats — who may fly under the radar.
Philippe Coutinho, FWD/MID, Aston Villa
FanDuel Salary: $18
Coutinho has cooled off since his explosive start following his arrival at Aston Villa. Heading into Sunday he finds himself in an eight-game goal-scoring drought and hasn’t produced more than 20 FanDuel points in a game since March 10th. His slump from him combined with the presence of City’s stars in his salary range should push his draft percentage down despite his talent from him.
Coutinho’s slump hasn’t been for lack of trying as he is averaging 2.25 shots per game this season and 1.5 chances created per appearance. Aston Villa is coming off a narrow defeat to Liverpool on Tuesday in which they had numerous chances to get a result and failed to convert. Prior to that defeat, they had won two in a row, each by two goals.
Palace has been in excellent form, especially their defense, which has allowed just four goals over their last six fixtures, the second-fewest in the league during that time. Coutinho is a bet-on-talent option at the high end of the FWD/MID salary ladder when the vast majority of attention in that range will be going toward City’s stars as they chase down another title.
Harvey Barnes, FWD/MID, Leicester City
FanDuel Salary: $13
Further down the salary ladder, Barnes finds himself in an intriguing spot facing a Watford side whose defensive struggle this season has been well documented. Leicester is the third-largest favorite on the slate, and their star striker, Jamie Vardy ($20)may be the most popular non-City player on Sunday’s main slate.
Fellow Foxes James Madison ($17) and Yuri Tielemans ($16) will also generate some interest alongside Vardy, further suppressing Barnes’ draft percentage despite this recent production. Barnes is coming off a two-assist, 23.9 FanDuel-point performance against Norwich on Wednesday in what was his first start since April 20th and just his second since the start of April.
Barnes has been very consistent during multiple stretches of the season, including a run of six straight games with double-digit FanDuel points from November to December and another four-game run with double-digit points in March. He is in an excellent position to produce against Watford on Sunday and will likely come in at a low draft percentage as the public favors his three higher-profile teammates.
Tony Springett, FWD/MID, Norwich
FanDuel Salary: $11
Springett made his debut for Norwich last Sunday as a substitute and made his first start for the club on Wednesday, producing 14.9 FanDuel points with two chances created and one shot on goal in 67 minutes played against Leicester City. With Norwich relegated, Springett may remain in the starting lineup as Norwich looks to the future with their remaining games this season.
Wolves are the second-largest favorite on Sunday’s slate but have had defensive issues of their own recently. They have lost four of their last five, with 13 goals conceded during that stretch. Seven of those were to Manchester City and Chelsea, but Wolves also allowed Brighton to score three and gave up one each to Burnley and Newcastle.
While the public will favor Wolves, there could be goals on both sides in this one, and Springett should be motivated in just his third appearance in the Premier League. At this salary of just $11, he fits in nicely alongside lineups centered on Manchester City’s high-salary stars.